2026-09-30
The government's new 10-year job outlook names AI in 48 occupations, up from 38
In its 2025–35 projections, the Bureau of Labor Statistics now cites artificial intelligence as a reason employment will shift in more occupations, especially in computer support, design, media and clerical work.
In 30 seconds
- FactBLS's 2025–35 projections name artificial intelligence as a factor in 48 occupations. The 2024–34 edition named it in 38.
- Fact18 occupations are named for the first time, including graphic designers, writers, photographers, web developers and customer service representatives.
- FactIn 50 of the 54 places BLS mentions AI, it expects the occupation's share of employment to shrink; in 4, to grow.
- AnalysisBeing on this list is not the same as disappearing: 18 of the 48 occupations are still projected to add jobs by 2035.
What happened
Every year the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes 10-year employment projections for 831 detailed occupations. Alongside the numbers, BLS publishes a table explaining why it expects some occupations to gain or lose share of employment in particular industries.
In the newest edition, covering 2025 to 2035, that table mentions artificial intelligence for 48 occupations. In last year's edition, covering 2024 to 2034, it mentioned AI for 38. The table lists some explanatory factor for 447 occupations in total, so AI is now one of several named forces, not the only one.
Why it matters
BLS projections are built from documented evidence and change gradually from one edition to the next. When BLS adds an occupation to the list of those where AI shifts employment, the effect has moved from commentary into the official outlook.
For a student choosing a field, the useful question is not "is AI coming for this job?" but "which tasks inside this job are changing, and does my education prepare me for the tasks that remain?" The occupations newly named this year cluster in computer support and web work, design and media, and routine customer-facing and clerical roles.
What this does not mean
It does not mean these jobs are disappearing. Most of BLS's explanations describe a smaller share of employment, often because workers using AI tools become more productive, not because the role vanishes.
It does not mean jobs missing from the list are safe. The table covers selected occupation-industry combinations, and some occupations dropped off this year. Software developers, for example, were listed last year because BLS expected AI research to increase demand for them; this year's table does not list an AI factor for them, while their projected 10-year growth was revised down from +15.8% to +10.2%.
Projections are not predictions about any one person. They describe national averages across a decade.
The evidence
The 18 occupations named for the first time, with projected change and median pay.
| Occupation | 2025–35 | Median pay |
|---|---|---|
| Computer programmers | -7.3% | $100,390 |
| Office clerks, general | -6.0% | $45,010 |
| Customer service representatives | -5.3% | $44,770 |
| Network and computer systems administrators | -4.1% | $99,130 |
| Advertising and promotions managers | -3.7% | $133,660 |
| Computer user support specialists | -3.5% | $61,860 |
| Fine artists, including painters, sculptors, and illustrators | -2.9% | $55,490 |
| Graphic designers | -1.7% | $62,960 |
| Photographers | -0.7% | $44,660 |
| Special effects artists and animators | -0.3% | $102,030 |
| Writers and authors | -0.3% | $76,910 |
| Court reporters and simultaneous captioners | -0.1% | $72,420 |
| Demonstrators and product promoters | +0.2% | $39,320 |
| Public relations specialists | +1.8% | $74,750 |
| Hotel, motel, and resort desk clerks | +1.8% | $35,070 |
| Web developers | +3.8% | $92,650 |
| Software quality assurance analysts and testers | +5.7% | $104,300 |
| Web and digital interface designers | +6.0% | $104,000 |
Questions to ask
- For a program I'm considering: which of its courses teach the tasks BLS says are being automated, and which teach the tasks that remain?
- Do graduates of this program use AI tools in their first jobs, and does the program teach them?
- If this occupation's share shrinks, which related occupations use the same skills?
What would change our view
The next BLS projections will be published in about a year. Before then, O*NET's task updates and monthly employment data can show whether hiring in these occupations is already changing.
History
2026-09-30 · Draft generated from BLS 2025–35 and 2024–34 projection tables. Awaiting editor review.
Sources
- BLS Employment Projections, 2025–35, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved 2026-10-01.
- BLS Employment Projections, 2024–34 (archived), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved 2026-10-01.